Forest-based and Boosted Classification and Regression (Spatial Statistics)

Summary

Creates models and generates predictions using one of two supervised machine learning methods: an adaptation of the random forest algorithm developed by Leo Breiman and Adele Cutler or the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm developed by Tianqi Chen and Carlos Guestrin. Predictions can be performed for both categorical variables (classification) and continuous variables (regression). Explanatory variables can take the form of fields in the attribute table of the training features, raster datasets, and distance features used to calculate proximity values for use as additional variables. In addition to validation of model performance based on the training data, predictions can be made to either features or a prediction raster.

Learn more about how Forest-based and Boosted Classification and Regression works

Illustration

Usage

• This tool supports two model types: forest-based and gradient boosted. Both model types use hundreds of trees, called an ensemble of decision trees, to create a model that can be used for prediction.

  • Forest-based—Creates a model by applying a bagging technique in which each decision tree is created in parallel using a randomly generated portion of the original (training) data. Each tree generates its own prediction and votes on an outcome. The forest-based model considers the votes from all the decision trees to predict or classify the outcome of an unknown sample. This is important, as individual trees may have issues with overfitting a model; however, combining multiple trees in a forest for prediction addresses the overfitting problem associated with a single tree. This model requires fewer parameters and is more intuitive.
  • Gradient Boosted—Creates a model by applying a boosting technique in which each decision tree is created sequentially using the original (training) data. Each subsequent tree corrects the errors of the previous trees, so the model combines several weak learners to become a strong prediction model. The gradient boosted model incorporates regularization and an early stopping technique which can prevent overfitting. This model provides greater control over the hyperparameters and is more complex.

• This tool can be used in three operation modes: train, predict to features, and predict to raster. In the Prediction Type parameter, the Train only option can be used to evaluate the performance of various models as you explore different explanatory variables and tool settings. Once you find a good model, use the Predict to features or Predict to raster option.

• This is a data-driven tool and performs best on large datasets. The tool should be trained on at least several hundred features for best results. It is not an appropriate tool for very small datasets.

• The Input Training Features parameter value can be points or polygons. This tool does not work with multipart data.

• An ArcGIS Spatial Analyst extension license is required to use rasters as explanatory variables or to predict to an Output Prediction Surface value.

• This tool produces the following optional outputs:

  • Output Trained Features—A feature class that contains all the Input Training Features values and all the explanatory variables used in the model. The explanatory variables include all the input fields used, distances calculated, and raster values extracted or calculated. The feature class will also include predictions for every feature in the Input Training Features values. This includes the features that were used to train and validate the model. If the variable to predict is not categorical, the feature class will include the residual and the standard residual for each prediction. If the variable to predict is categorical, the feature class will contain a Correctly Classified field that specifies whether the model correctly classified each prediction. Use the Residual and Standard Residual fields or Correctly Classified field to help assess the performance of the model created.
  • Output Trained Model File—A reusable file that contains the trained model results. The file can be used in the Predict Using Spatial Statistics Model File tool to predict to new features.
  • Output Predicted Features—A feature class that contains the model's predicted value for each feature. This option is only available when the Prediction Type parameter value is Predict to features.
  • Output Prediction Surface—An output raster that contains the prediction results. This output is only available when the Prediction Type parameter value is Predict to raster.
  • Output Variable Importance Table—A table that describes the importance of each explanatory variable (fields, distance features, and rasters).
  • Output Parameter Tuning Table—A table that contains the parameter settings and objective values for each optimization trial. This output is only available when the Optimize Parameters parameter is checked.
  • Output Classification Performance Table (Confusion Matrix)—A table that summarizes the performance of the model on the validation data. The columns of the matrix represent the categories predicted by the model, and the rows represent the actual categories. Use the table to evaluate how the model performs on the validation data. This output is only available when the Treat as Categorical parameter is checked.

• This tool creates messages to help you understand the performance of the model created. You can access the messages by hovering over the progress bar, clicking the pop-out button, or expanding the messages section in the Geoprocessing pane. You can also access the messages for a previous run of this tool through the Geoprocessing history. The messages include the following:

  • Information on the model characteristics
  • Model out of bag errors
  • Training diagnostics
  • Validation diagnostics
  • Explanatory variable diagnostics
  • Variable Importance—If the Output Variable Importance Table parameter value is provided, the geoprocessing messages will report the 20 variables with the highest importance. If the Number of Runs for Validation parameter value is greater than 1, there will be more than one set of variable importance values. Each run will have a set of variable importance values so the geoprocessing messages will report the set of variable importance values associated with the run with an R-Squared or accuracy that is closest to the median R-Squared or accuracy.

• This tool adds the following optional charts to the Contents pane:

  • Prediction Performance—A stacked bar chart to help evaluate how well the model fits the data. The categories on the x-axis were predicted by the model for the Input Training Features value. This includes the features that were used to train and validate the model. The colors represent the true categories of the input training features. This chart is only produced if the variable to predict is categorical, the Treat Variable as Categorical checkbox is checked, and the Output Trained Features parameter is provided.
  • Confusion Matrix—A matrix heat chart. The x-axis represents the predicted category of the features in the Input Training Features value and the y-axis represents their actual category. The diagonal cells visualize the number of times the model correctly predicted a category. Higher counts in the diagonal cells indicate that the model performed well. This chart is only produced if the variable to predict is categorical and the Treat Variable as Categorical parameter is checked.
  • Summary of Variable Importance or Distribution of Variable Importance—A bar chart that displays the importance of each explanatory variable to the model. If the Number of Runs for Validation value is greater than 1, the chart will be a box plot that displays the distribution of importance values for each explanatory variable. This chart is produced if you provide the Output Variable Importance Table parameter value.
  • Validation Performance—A stacked bar chart to help evaluate how well the model performs on the validation data. The actual categories of the features in the validation data are on the x-axis. The color represents the predicted category of the features in the validation data. This chart is only produced if the variable to predict is categorical, the Treat Variable as Categorical checkbox is checked, and the Output Classification Performance Table (Confusion Matrix) parameter value is provided.
  • Validation R2 or Validation Accuracy—A histogram that displays the distribution of R² or accuracy values. The distribution of R² or accuracy values is due to randomness that is introduced when creating the model. This chart helps to evaluate the stability of the model performance across different model runs. This chart is only generated when the Output Validation Table parameter value is provided and the Number of Runs for Validation value is greater than 1.

• Explanatory variables can come from fields or be calculated from distance features or extracted from rasters. You can use any combination of these explanatory variable types, but at least one type is required. The explanatory variables (from fields, distance features, or rasters) used should contain a variety of values. If the explanatory variable is categorical, check the Categorical check box. The Categorical check box will automatically be checked for variables of type string. Categorical explanatory variables are limited to 60 unique values, though a smaller number of categories will improve model performance. For a given data size, the more categories a variable contains, the more likely it is to dominate the model and lead to less effective prediction results.

• Distance features are used to automatically create explanatory variables representing a distance from the provided features to the Input Training Features values. Distances will be calculated from each feature of the Input Training Feature value to the nearest Explanatory Training Distance Features value. If the input Explanatory Training Distance Features values are polygons or lines, the distance attributes will be calculated as the distance between the closest segments of the pair of features. However, distances are calculated differently for polygons and lines. See How proximity tools calculate distance for details.

• If the Input Training Features values are points and you are using the Explanatory Training Rasters parameter, the tool drills down to extract explanatory variables at each point location. For multiband rasters, only the first band is used.

• Although you can have multiple layers with the same name in the Contents pane, the tool does not accept explanatory distance and explanatory raster layers with the same name. To avoid this issue, ensure that each layer has a unique name or remove duplicate layer names in the drop-down lists.

• If the Input Training Features values are polygons, the Variable to Predict parameter value is categorical, and you are using Explanatory Training Rasters values exclusively, the Convert Polygons to Raster Resolution for Training parameter will be available. If you check this parameter, the polygon will be divided into points at the centroid of each raster cell whose centroid falls within the polygon. The raster values at each point location are then extracted and used to train the model. A bilinear sampling method is used for numeric variables, and the nearest method is used for categorical variables. The default cell size of the converted polygons will be the maximum cell size of input rasters. However, you can change this using the Cell Size environment setting. If this parameter is not checked, one raster value for each polygon will be used in the model. Each polygon is assigned the average value for continuous rasters and the majority for categorical rasters.

  

• There must be variation in the data used for each explanatory variable specified. If you receive an error that there is no variation in one of the fields or rasters specified, you can try running the tool again, marking that variable as categorical. If 95 percent of the features have the same value for a particular variable, that variable is flagged as having no variation.

• The Compensate for Sparse Categories parameter can be used if the variation in the categories is unbalanced. For example, if you have some categories that occur hundreds of times in the dataset and a few that occur significantly less often, checking this parameter will ensure that each category is represented in each tree to create balanced models. This parameter is only supported when the Model Type parameter value is Forest-based.

• When matching explanatory variables, the Prediction and Training fields must be of the same type (a double field in Training must be matched to a double field in Prediction).

• Forest-based and boosted models do not extrapolate, they only classify or predict to a value that the model was trained on. When predicting a value based on explanatory variables that are much higher or lower than the range of the original training dataset, the model will estimate the value to be around the highest or lowest value in the original dataset. This tool may perform poorly when trying to predict with explanatory variables that are out of range of the explanatory variables used to train the model.

• The tool will fail if categories exist in the prediction explanatory variables that are not present in the training features. Similarly, the tool will fail if categories exist in the validation data that are not present in the training features.

• To use mosaic datasets as explanatory variables, run the Make Mosaic Layer tool first and copy the full path to the layer into the tool or use the Make Mosaic Layer tool and the Make Raster Layer tool to adjust the processing template for the mosaic dataset.

• The default value for the Number of Trees parameter is 100. For the Forest-based model, increasing the number of trees in the model will result in more accurate model prediction, but the model will take longer to calculate.

• If the Model Type parameter value is Forest-based and the Calculate Uncertainty parameter is checked, the tool will calculate a 90 percent prediction interval around each predicted value of the Variable to Predict value. When the Prediction Type parameter value is Train only or Predict to features, two fields will be added to either the Output Trained Features value or the Output Predicted Features value. These fields, ending with _P05 and _P95, represent the upper and lower bounds of the prediction interval. For any new observation, you can predict with 90 percent confidence that the value of a new observation will fall within the interval, given the same explanatory variables. When the Prediction Type parameter value is Predict to raster, two additional rasters representing the upper and lower bounds of the prediction interval will be added to the Contents pane.

• For performance reasons, the Explanatory Training Distance Features parameter is not available when the Prediction Type parameter value is Predict to raster. To include distances to features as explanatory variables, calculate distance rasters using the Distance Accumulation tool, and include the distance rasters in the Explanatory Training Rasters parameter.

• This tool supports parallel processing for prediction and uses 50 percent of available processors by default. The number of processors can be increased or decreased using the Parallel Processing Factor environment.

• To learn more about how this tool works and understand the output messages and charts, see How Forest-based Classification and Regression works.

  References:

  • Breiman, Leo. Out-Of-Bag Estimation. 1996.
  • Breiman, L. (1996). Bagging predictors. Machine learning, 24(2), 123-140.
  • Breiman, Leo. "Random Forests". Machine Learning. 45 (1): 5-32. doi:10.1023/A:1010933404324. 2001.
  • Breiman, L., J.H. Friedman, R.A. Olshen, C.J. Stone. Classification and regression trees. New York: Routledge. Chapter 4. 2017.
  • Chen, T., and Guestrin, C. (2016). "XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System." In Proceedings of the 22^nd ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. 785-794.
  • Dietterich, T. G. (2000, June). Ensemble methods in machine learning. In International workshop on multiple classifier systems (pp. 1-15). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
  • Gini, C. (1912). Variabilità e mutabilità. Reprinted in Memorie di metodologica statistica (Ed. Pizetti E, Salvemini, T). Rome: Libreria Eredi Virgilio Veschi.
  • Grömping, U. (2009). Variable importance assessment in regression: linear regression versus random forest. The American Statistician, 63(4), 308-319.
  • Ho, T. K. (1995, August). Random decision forests. In Document analysis and recognition, 1995., proceedings of the third international conference on Document Analysis and Recognition. (Vol. 1, pp. 278-282). IEEE.
  • James, G., Witten, D., Hastie, T., & Tibshirani, R. (2013). An introduction to statistical learning (Vol. 112). New York: springer.
  • LeBlanc, M., & Tibshirani, R. (1996). Combining estimates in regression and classification. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91(436), 1641-1650.
  • Loh, W. Y., & Shih, Y. S. (1997). Split selection methods for classification trees. Statistica sinica, 815-840.
  • Meinshausen, Nicolai. "Quantile regression forests." Journal of Machine Learning Research 7. Jun (2006): 983-999.
  • Nadeau, C., & Bengio, Y. (2000). Inference for the generalization error. In Advances in neural information processing systems (pp. 307-313).
  • Strobl, C., Boulesteix, A. L., Kneib, T., Augustin, T., & Zeileis, A. (2008). Conditional variable importance for random forests. BMC bioinformatics, 9(1), 307.
  • Zhou, Z. H. (2012). Ensemble methods: foundations and algorithms. CRC press.

Parameters

Dialog

Label	Explanation	Data Type
Prediction Type	Specifies the operation mode that will be used. The tool can be run to train a model to only assess performance, predict features, or create a prediction surface. Train only—A model will be trained, but no predictions will be generated. Use this option to assess the accuracy of the model before generating predictions. This option will output model diagnostics in the messages window and a chart of variable importance. This is the default. Predict to features—Predictions or classifications will be generated for features. Explanatory variables must be provided for both the training features and the features to be predicted. The output of this option will be a feature class, model diagnostics in the messages window, and an optional table and chart of variable importance. Predict to raster—A prediction raster will be generated for the area where the explanatory rasters intersect. Explanatory rasters must be provided for both the training area and the area to be predicted. The output of this option will be a prediction surface, model diagnostics in the messages window, and an optional table and chart of variable importance.	String
Input Training Features	The feature class containing the Variable to Predict parameter value and, optionally, the explanatory training variables from fields.	Feature Layer
Variable to Predict (Optional)	The variable from the Input Training Features parameter value containing the values to be used to train the model. This field contains known (training) values of the variable that will be used to predict at unknown locations.	Field
Treat Variable as Categorical (Optional)	Specifies whether the Variable to Predict value is a categorical variable. Checked—The Variable to Predict value is a categorical variable and classification will be performed. Unchecked—The Variable to Predict value is continuous and regression will be performed. This is the default.	Boolean
Explanatory Training Variables (Optional)	A list of fields representing the explanatory variables that help predict the value or category of the Variable to Predict value. Check the Categorical check box for any variables that represent classes or categories (such as land cover or presence or absence).	Value Table
Explanatory Training Distance Features (Optional)	The feature layer containing the explanatory training distance features. Explanatory variables will be automatically created by calculating a distance from the provided features to the Input Training Features values. Distances will be calculated from each of the features in the Input Training Features value to the nearest Explanatory Training Distance Features values. If the input Explanatory Training Distance Features values are polygons or lines, the distance attributes will be calculated as the distance between the closest segments of the pair of features.	Feature Layer
Explanatory Training Rasters (Optional)	The explanatory training variables extracted from rasters. Explanatory training variables will be automatically created by extracting raster cell values. For each feature in the Input Training Features parameter, the value of the raster cell is extracted at that exact location. Bilinear raster resampling is used when extracting the raster value for continuous rasters. Nearest neighbor assignment is used when extracting a raster value from categorical rasters. Check the Categorical check box for any rasters that represent classes or categories such as land cover or presence or absence.	Value Table
Input Prediction Features (Optional)	A feature class representing the locations where predictions will be made. This feature class must also contain any explanatory variables provided as fields that correspond to those used from the training data.	Feature Layer
Output Predicted Features (Optional)	The output feature class containing the prediction results.	Feature Class
Output Prediction Surface (Optional)	The output raster containing the prediction results. The default cell size will be the maximum cell size of the raster inputs. To set a different cell size, use the Cell Size environment setting.	Raster Dataset
Match Explanatory Variables (Optional)	A list of the Explanatory Variables values specified from the Input Training Features parameter on the right and corresponding fields from the Input Prediction Features parameter on the left.	Value Table
Match Distance Features (Optional)	A list of the Explanatory Distance Features values specified for the Input Training Features parameter on the right and corresponding feature sets from the Input Prediction Features parameter on the left. Explanatory Distance Features values that are more appropriate for the Input Prediction Features parameter can be provided if those used for training are in a different study area or time period.	Value Table
Match Explanatory Rasters (Optional)	A list of the Explanatory Rasters values specified for the Input Training Features parameter on the right and corresponding rasters from the Input Prediction Features parameter or the Prediction Surface parameter to be created on the left. The Explanatory Rasters values that are more appropriate for the Input Prediction Features parameter can be provided if those used for training are in a different study area or time period.	Value Table
Output Trained Features (Optional)	The explanatory variables used for training (including sampled raster values and distance calculations), as well as the observed Variable to Predict field and accompanying predictions that will be used to further assess performance of the trained model.	Feature Class
Output Variable Importance Table (Optional)	The table that will contain information describing the importance of each explanatory variable used in the model. The explanatory variables include fields, distance features, and rasters used to create the model. If the Model type parameter value is Gradient Boosted, importance is measured by gain, weight, and cover, and the table will include these fields. The output will include a bar chart, if the Number of Runs for Validation parameter value is one, or a box plot, if the value is greater than one, of the importance of the explanatory variables.	Table
Convert Polygons to Raster Resolution for Training (Optional)	Specifies how polygons will be treated when training the model if the Input Training Features values are polygons with a categorical Variable to Predict value and only Explanatory Training Rasters values have been provided. Checked—The polygon will be divided into all of the raster cells with centroids falling within the polygon. The raster values at each centroid will be extracted and used to train the model. The model will no longer be trained on the polygon; it will be trained on the raster values extracted for each cell centroid. This is the default. Unchecked—Each polygon will be assigned the average value of the underlying continuous rasters and the majority for underlying categorical rasters.	Boolean
Number of Trees (Optional)	The number of trees that will be created in the Forest-based and Gradient Boosted models. The default is 100. If the Model Type parameter value is Forest-based, more trees will generally result in more accurate model predictions; however, the model will take longer to calculate. If the Model Type parameter value is Gradient Boosted, more trees may result in more accurate model predictions; however, they may also lead to overfitting the training data. To avoid overfitting the data, provide values for the Maximum Tree Depth, L2 Regularization (Lambda), Minimum Loss Reduction for Splits (Gamma), and Learning Rate (Eta)parameters.	Long
Minimum Leaf Size (Optional)	The minimum number of observations required to keep a leaf (that is, the terminal node on a tree without further splits). The default minimum for regression is 5 and the default for classification is 1. For very large data, increasing these numbers will decrease the run time of the tool.	Long
Maximum Tree Depth (Optional)	The maximum number of splits that will be made down a tree. Using a large maximum depth, more splits will be created, which may increase the chances of overfitting the model. If the Model type parameter value is Forest-based, the default is data driven and depends on the number of trees created and the number of variables included. If the Model type parameter value is Gradient Boosted, the default is 6.	Long
Data Available per Tree (%) (Optional)	The percentage of the Input Training Features values that will be used for each decision tree. The default is 100 percent of the data. Samples for each tree are taken randomly from two-thirds of the data specified. Each decision tree in the forest is created using a random sample or subset (approximately two-thirds) of the training data available. Using a lower percentage of the input data for each decision tree decreases the run time of the tool for very large datasets.	Long
Number of Randomly Sampled Variables (Optional)	The number of explanatory variables that will be used to create each decision tree. Each decision tree in the forest-based and gradient boosted models is created using a random subset of the specified explanatory variables. Increasing the number of variables used in each decision tree will increase the chances of overfitting the model, particularly if there is one or more dominant variables. The default is to use the square root of the total number of explanatory variables (fields, distances, and rasters combined) if the Variable to Predict value is categorical or to divide the total number of explanatory variables (fields, distances, and rasters combined) by 3 if the Variable to Predict value is numeric.	Long
Training Data Excluded for Validation (%) (Optional)	The percentage (between 10 percent and 50 percent) of the Input Training Features values that will be reserved as the test dataset for validation. The model will be trained without this random subset of data, and the model predicted values for those features will be compared to the observed values. The default is 10 percent.	Double
Output Classification Performance Table (Confusion Matrix) (Optional)	A confusion matrix that summarizes the performance of the model created on the validation data. The matrix compares the model predicted categories for the validation data to the actual categories. This table can be used to calculate additional diagnostics that are not included in the output messages. This parameter is available when the Variable to Predict value is categorical and the Treat as Categorical parameter is checked.	Table
Output Validation Table (Optional)	A table that contains the R^2 for each model if the Variable to Predict value is not categorical, or the accuracy of each model if the value is categorical. This table includes a bar chart of the distribution of accuracies or the R^2 values. This distribution can be used to assess the stability of the model. This parameter is available when the Number of Runs for Validation value is greater than 2.	Table
Compensate for Sparse Categories (Optional)	Specifies whether each category in the training dataset, regardless of its frequency, will be represented in each tree. This parameter is available when the Model Type parameter value is Forest-based. Checked—Each tree will include every category that is represented in the training dataset. Unchecked—Each tree will be created based on a random sample of the categories in the training dataset. This is the default.	Boolean
Number of Runs for Validation (Optional)	The number of iterations of the tool. The distribution of R-squared values (continuous) or accuracies (categorical) of all the models can be displayed using the Output Validation Table parameter. If the Prediction Type parameter value is Predict to raster or Predict to features, the model that produced the median R-squared value or accuracy will be used to make predictions. Using the median value helps ensure stability of the predictions.	Long
Calculate Uncertainty (Optional)	Specifies whether prediction uncertainty will be calculated when training, predicting to features, or predicting to raster. This parameter is available when the Model Type parameter value is Forest-based. Checked—A prediction uncertainty interval will be calculated. Unchecked—Uncertainty will not be calculated. This is the default.	Boolean
Output Trained Model File (Optional)	An output model file that will save the trained model, which can be used later for prediction.	File
Model Type (Optional)	Specifies the method that will be used to create the model. Forest-based—A model will be created using an adaptation of the random forest algorithm. The model will use the votes from hundreds of decisions trees. Each decision tree will be created from a randomly generated subset of the original data and original variables. Gradient Boosted—A model will be created using the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm. The model will create a sequence of hundreds of trees in which each subsequent tree corrects the errors of the previous trees.	String
L2 Regularization (Lambda) (Optional)	A regularization term that reduces the model's sensitivity to individual features. Increasing this value will make the model more conservative and prevent overfitting the training data. If the value is 0, the model becomes the traditional Gradient Boosting model. The default is 1. This parameter is available when the Model Type parameter value is Gradient Boosted.	Double
Minimum Loss Reduction for Splits (Gamma) (Optional)	A threshold for the minimum loss reduction needed to split trees. Potential splits are evaluated for their loss reduction. If the candidate split has a higher loss reduction than this threshold value, the partition will occur. Higher threshold values avoid overfitting and result in more conservative models with fewer partitions. The default is 0. This parameter is available when the Model Type parameter value is Gradient Boosted.	Double
Learning Rate (Eta) (Optional)	A value that reduces the contribution of each tree to the final prediction. The value should be greater than 0 and less than or equal to 1. A lower learning rate prevents overfitting the model; however, it may require longer computation times. The default is 0.3. This parameter is available when the Model Type parameter value is Gradient Boosted.	Double
Maximum Number of Bins for Searching Splits (Optional)	The number of bins that the training data will be divided into to search for the best splitting point. The value cannot be 1. The default is 0, which corresponds to the use of a greedy algorithm. A greedy algorithm will create a candidate split at every data point. Providing too few bins for searching is not recommended because it will lead to poor model prediction performance. This parameter is available when the Model Type parameter value is Gradient Boosted.	Long
Optimize Parameters (Optional)	Specifies whether an optimization method will be used to find the set of hyperparameters that achieve optimal model performance. Checked—An optimization method will be used to find the set of hyperparameters. Unchecked—An optimization method will not be used. This is the default.	Boolean
Optimization Method (Optional)	Specifies the optimization method that will be used to select and test search points to find the optimal set of hyperparameters. Search points are combinations of hyperparameters within the search space specified by the Model Parameter Setting parameter. This option is available when the Optimization Parameters parameter is checked. Random Search (Quick)—A stratified random sampling algorithm will be used to select the search points within the search space. This is the default. Random Search (Robust)—A stratified random sampling algorithm will be used to select the search points. Each search will be run 10 times using a different random seed. The result of each search will be the median best run determined by the Optimize Target (Objective) parameter value. This option is available if the Model Type parameter value is Forest-based. Grid Search—Every search point within the search space will be selected.	String
Optimize Target (Objective) (Optional)	Specifies the objective function or value that will be minimized or maximized to find the optimal set of hyperparameters. R-Squared—The optimization method will maximize R^2 to find the optimal set of hyperparameters. This option is only available when the variable to predict is not categorical. This is the default when the variable to predict is not categorical. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)—The optimization method will minimize root mean square error to find the optimal set of hyperparameters. This option is only available when the variable to predict is not categorical. Accuracy—The optimization method will maximize accuracy to find the optimal model. This option is only available when the variable to predict is categorical. This is the default when the variable to predict is categorical. Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC)—The optimization method will maximize Matthews correlation coefficient to find the optimal set of hyperparameters. This option is only available when the variable to predict is categorical. F1-Score—The optimization method will maximize the F1-Score to find the optimal set of hyperparameters. This option is only available when the variable to predict is categorical.	String
Number of Runs for Parameter Sets (Optional)	The number of search points within the search space specified by the Model Parameter Setting parameter that will be tested. This parameter is available when the Optimization Method value is Random Search (Quick) or Random Search (Robust).	Long
Model Parameter Setting (Optional)	A list of hyperparameters and their search spaces. Customize the search space of each hyperparameter by providing a lower bound, upper bound, and interval. The lower bound and upper bound specify the range of possible values for the hyperparameter. The following is the range of valid values for each hyperparameter: Number of Trees (number_of_trees)—An integer value greater than 1. Maximum Tree Depth (maximum_depth)—An integer value greater than or equal to 0. Minimum Leaf Size (minimum_leaf_size)—An integer value greater than 1. Data Available per Tree (%) (sample_size)—An integer value greater than 0 and less than or equal to 100. Number of Randomly Sampled Variables (random_variables)—An integer value less than or equal to the number of explanatory variables. This includes the explanatory variables from fields, distance features, and rasters. Learning Rate (Eta) (eta)—A double value greater than 0 and less than or equal to 1. L2 Regularization (Lambda) (reg_lambda)—A double value greater than or equal to 0. Minimum Loss Reduction for Splits (Gamma) (gamma)—A double value greater than or equal to 0. Maximum Number of Bins for Searching Splits (max_bins)—An integer value greater than 1 or the value 0. A value of 0 means the model will create a candidate split at every data point.	Value Table
Output Parameter Tuning Table (Optional)	A table that contains the parameter settings and objective values for each optimization trial. The output includes a chart of all the trials and their objective values. This option is available when Optimize Parameters is checked.	Table
Include All Prediction Probabilities (Optional)	For categorical variables to predict, specifies whether the probability of every category of the categorical variable or only the probability of the record's category will be predicted. For example, if a categorical variable has categories A, B, and C, and the first record has category B, use this parameter to specify whether the probability for categories A, B, and C will be predicted or only the probability of category B will be predicted for the record. Checked—Probabilities for all categories of the categorical variable will be predicted and included in the output. Unchecked—Only the probability of the category of the record will be predicted and included in the output. This is the default.	Boolean

Derived Output

Label	Explanation	Data Type
Output Uncertainty Raster Layers	When the Calculate Uncertainty parameter is checked, the tool will calculate a 90 percent prediction interval around each predicted value of the Variable to Predict parameter.	Raster Layer

Python

arcpy.stats.Forest(prediction_type, in_features, {variable_predict}, {treat_variable_as_categorical}, {explanatory_variables}, {distance_features}, {explanatory_rasters}, {features_to_predict}, {output_features}, {output_raster}, {explanatory_variable_matching}, {explanatory_distance_matching}, {explanatory_rasters_matching}, {output_trained_features}, {output_importance_table}, {use_raster_values}, {number_of_trees}, {minimum_leaf_size}, {maximum_depth}, {sample_size}, {random_variables}, {percentage_for_training}, {output_classification_table}, {output_validation_table}, {compensate_sparse_categories}, {number_validation_runs}, {calculate_uncertainty}, {output_trained_model}, {model_type}, {reg_lambda}, {gamma}, {eta}, {max_bins}, {optimize}, {optimize_algorithm}, {optimize_target}, {num_search}, {model_param_setting}, {output_param_tuning_table}, {include_probabilities})

Name	Explanation	Data Type
prediction_type	Specifies the operation mode that will be used. The tool can be run to train a model to only assess performance, predict features, or create a prediction surface. TRAIN—A model will be trained, but no predictions will be generated. Use this option to assess the accuracy of the model before generating predictions. This option will output model diagnostics in the messages window and a chart of variable importance. This is the default. PREDICT_FEATURES—Predictions or classifications will be generated for features. Explanatory variables must be provided for both the training features and the features to be predicted. The output of this option will be a feature class, model diagnostics in the messages window, and an optional table and chart of variable importance. PREDICT_RASTER—A prediction raster will be generated for the area where the explanatory rasters intersect. Explanatory rasters must be provided for both the training area and the area to be predicted. The output of this option will be a prediction surface, model diagnostics in the messages window, and an optional table and chart of variable importance.	String
in_features	The feature class containing the variable_predict parameter value and, optionally, the explanatory training variables from fields.	Feature Layer
variable_predict (Optional)	The variable from the in_features parameter value containing the values to be used to train the model. This field contains known (training) values of the variable that will be used to predict at unknown locations.	Field
treat_variable_as_categorical (Optional)	CATEGORICAL—The variable_predict value is a categorical variable and classification will be performed. NUMERIC—The variable_predict value is continuous and regression will be performed. This is the default	Boolean
explanatory_variables [[Variable, Categorical],...] (Optional)	A list of fields representing the explanatory variables that help predict the value or category of the variable_predict value. Use the treat_variable_as_categorical parameter for any variables that represent classes or categories (such as land cover or presence or absence). Specify the variable as CATEGORICAL if it represents classes or categories such as land cover or presence or absence, and specify NUMERIC if it is continuous.	Value Table
distance_features [distance_features,...] (Optional)	The explanatory training distance features. Explanatory variables will be automatically created by calculating a distance from the provided features to the in_features values. Distances will be calculated from each of the features in the in_features value to the nearest distance_features values. If the input distance_features values are polygons or lines, the distance attributes will be calculated as the distance between the closest segments of the pair of features.	Feature Layer
explanatory_rasters [[Variable, Categorical],...] (Optional)	The explanatory training variables extracted from rasters. Explanatory training variables will be automatically created by extracting raster cell values. For each feature in the in_features parameter, the value of the raster cell is extracted at that exact location. Bilinear raster resampling is used when extracting the raster value unless it is specified as categorical, in which case nearest neighbor assignment is used. Specify the raster as CATEGORICAL if it represents classes or categories such as land cover or presence or absence, and specify NUMERIC if it is continuous.	Value Table
features_to_predict (Optional)	A feature class representing the locations where predictions will be made. This feature class must also contain any explanatory variables provided as fields that correspond to those used from the training data.	Feature Layer
output_features (Optional)	The output feature class containing the prediction results.	Feature Class
output_raster (Optional)	The output raster containing the prediction results. The default cell size will be the maximum cell size of the raster inputs. To set a different cell size, use the Cell Size environment setting.	Raster Dataset
explanatory_variable_matching [[Prediction, Training],...] (Optional)	A list of the explanatory_variables values specified from the in_features parameter on the right and corresponding fields from the features_to_predict parameter on the left, for example, [["LandCover2000", "LandCover2010"], ["Income", "PerCapitaIncome"]].	Value Table
explanatory_distance_matching [[Prediction, Training],...] (Optional)	A list of the distance_features values specified for the in_features parameter on the right and corresponding feature sets from the features_to_predict parameter on the left. explanatory_distance_features values that are more appropriate for the features_to_predict parameter can be provided if those used for training are in a different study area or time period.	Value Table
explanatory_rasters_matching [[Prediction, Training],...] (Optional)	A list of the explanatory_rasters values specified for the in_features on the right and corresponding rasters from the features_to_predict parameter or output_raster parameter to be created on the left. The explanatory_rasters values that are more appropriate for the features_to_predict parameter can be provided if those used for training are in a different study area or time period.	Value Table
output_trained_features (Optional)	The explanatory variables used for training (including sampled raster values and distance calculations), as well as the observed variable_predict field and accompanying predictions that will be used to further assess performance of the trained model.	Feature Class
output_importance_table (Optional)	The table that will contain information describing the importance of each explanatory variable (fields, distance features, and rasters) used to create the model.	Table
use_raster_values (Optional)	Specifies how polygons will be treated when training the model if the in_features values are polygons with a categorical variable_predict value and only explanatory_rasters values have been provided. TRUE—The polygon will be divided into all of the raster cells with centroids falling within the polygon. The raster values at each centroid will be extracted and used to train the model. The model will no longer be trained on the polygon; it will be trained on the raster values extracted for each cell centroid. This is the default. FALSE—Each polygon will be assigned the average value of the underlying continuous rasters and the majority for underlying categorical rasters.	Boolean
number_of_trees (Optional)	The number of trees that will be created in the Forest-based and Gradient Boosted models. The default is 100. If the model_type parameter value is FOREST-BASED, more trees will generally result in more accurate model predictions; however, the model will take longer to calculate. If the model_type parameter value is GRADIENT_BOOSTED, more trees may result in more accurate model predictions; however, they may also lead to overfitting the training data. To avoid overfitting the data, provide values for the maximum_depth, reg_lambda, gamma, and eta parameters.	Long
minimum_leaf_size (Optional)	The minimum number of observations required to keep a leaf (that is, the terminal node on a tree without further splits). The default minimum for regression is 5 and the default for classification is 1. For very large data, increasing these numbers will decrease the run time of the tool.	Long
maximum_depth (Optional)	The maximum number of splits that will be made down a tree. Using a large maximum depth, more splits will be created, which may increase the chances of overfitting the model. If the model_type parameter value is FOREST-BASED, the default is data driven and depends on the number of trees created and the number of variables included. If the model_type parameter value is GRADIENT_BOOSTED, the default is 6.	Long
sample_size (Optional)	The percentage of the in_features values that will be used for each decision tree. The default is 100 percent of the data. Samples for each tree are taken randomly from two-thirds of the data specified. Each decision tree in the forest is created using a random sample or subset (approximately two-thirds) of the training data available. Using a lower percentage of the input data for each decision tree decreases the run time of the tool for very large datasets.	Long
random_variables (Optional)	The number of explanatory variables that will be used to create each decision tree. Each decision tree in the forest is created using a random subset of the specified explanatory variables. Increasing the number of variables used in each decision tree will increase the chances of overfitting the model, particularly if there is one or more dominant variables. A common practice is to use the square root of the total number of explanatory variables (fields, distances, and rasters combined) if the variable_predict value is categorical or to divide the total number of explanatory variables (fields, distances, and rasters combined) by 3 if the variable_predict value is numeric.	Long
percentage_for_training (Optional)	The percentage (between 10 percent and 50 percent) of the in_features values that will be reserved as the test dataset for validation. The model will be trained without this random subset of data, and the observed values for those features will be compared to the predicted value. The default is 10 percent.	Double
output_classification_table (Optional)	A confusion matrix that summarizes the performance of the model created on the validation data. The matrix compares the model predicted categories for the validation data to the actual categories. This table can be used to calculate additional diagnostics that are not included in the output messages. This parameter is available when the variable_predict value is categorical and the treat_variable_as_categorical parameter value is CATEGORICAL.	Table
output_validation_table (Optional)	A table that contains the R^2 for each model if the variable_predict value is not categorical, or the accuracy of each model if the value is categorical. This table includes a bar chart of the distribution of accuracies or the R^2 values. This distribution can be used to assess the stability of the model. This parameter is available when the number_validation_runs value is greater than 2.	Table
compensate_sparse_categories (Optional)	Specifies whether each category in the training dataset, regardless of its frequency, will be represented in each tree. This parameter is available when the model_type parameter value is FOREST-BASED. TRUE—Each tree will include every category that is represented in the training dataset. FALSE—Each tree will be created based on a random sample of the categories in the training dataset. This is the default.	Boolean
number_validation_runs (Optional)	The number of iterations of the tool. The distribution of R-squared values or accuracies of all the models can be displayed using the output_validation_table parameter. If the prediction_type parameter value is PREDICT_RASTER or PREDICT_FEATURES, the model that produced the median R-squared value or accuracy will be used to make predictions. Using the median value helps ensure stability of the predictions.	Long
calculate_uncertainty (Optional)	Specifies whether prediction uncertainty will be calculated when training, predicting to features, or predicting to raster. This parameter is available when the model_type parameter value is FOREST-BASED. TRUE— A prediction uncertainty interval will be calculated. FALSE— Uncertainty will not be calculated. This is the default.	Boolean
output_trained_model (Optional)	An output model file that will save the trained model, which can be used later for prediction.	File
model_type (Optional)	Specifies the method that will be used to create the model. FOREST-BASED—A model will be created using an adaptation of the random forest algorithm. The model will use the votes from hundreds of decisions trees. Each decision tree will be created from a randomly generated subset of the original data and original variables. GRADIENT_BOOSTED—A model will be created using the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm. The model will create a sequence of hundreds of trees in which each subsequent tree corrects the errors of the previous trees.	String
reg_lambda (Optional)	A regularization term that reduces the model's sensitivity to individual features. Increasing this value will make the model more conservative and prevent overfitting the training data. If the value is 0, the model becomes the traditional Gradient Boosting model. The default is 1. This parameter is available when the model_type parameter value is GRADIENT_BOOSTED.	Double
gamma (Optional)	A threshold for the minimum loss reduction needed to split trees. Potential splits are evaluated for their loss reduction. If the candidate split has a higher loss reduction than this threshold value, the partition will occur. Higher threshold values avoid overfitting and result in more conservative models with fewer partitions. The default is 0. This parameter is available when the model_type parameter value is GRADIENT_BOOSTED.	Double
eta (Optional)	A value that reduces the contribution of each tree to the final prediction. The value should be greater than 0 and less than or equal to 1. A lower learning rate prevents overfitting the model; however, it may require longer computation times. The default is 0.3. This parameter is available when the model_type parameter value is GRADIENT_BOOSTED.	Double
max_bins (Optional)	The number of bins that the training data will be divided into to search for the best splitting point. The value cannot be 1. The default is 0, which corresponds to the use of a greedy algorithm. A greedy algorithm will create a candidate split at every data point. Providing too few bins for searching is not recommended because it will lead to poor model prediction performance. This parameter is available when the model_type parameter value is GRADIENT_BOOSTED.	Long
optimize (Optional)	Specifies whether an optimization method will be used to find the set of hyperparameters that achieve optimal model performance. TRUE—An optimization method will be used to find the set of hyperparameters. FALSE—An optimization method will not be used. This is the default.	Boolean
optimize_algorithm (Optional)	Specifies the optimization method that will be used to select and test search points to find the optimal set of hyperparameters. Search points are combinations of hyperparameters within the search space specified by the model_param_setting parameter. This option is available when the optimize parameter value is TRUE. RANDOM—A stratified random sampling algorithm will be used to select the search points within the search space. This is the default. RANDOM_ROBUST—A stratified random sampling algorithm will be used to select the search points. Each search will be run 10 times using a different random seed. The result of each search will be the median best run determined by the optimize_target parameter value. This option is available when the model_type parameter value is FOREST-BASED. GRID—Every search point within the search space will be selected.	String
optimize_target (Optional)	Specifies the objective function or value that will be minimized or maximized to find the optimal set of hyperparameters. R2—The optimization method will maximize R^2 to find the optimal set of hyperparameters. This option is only available when the variable to predict is not categorical. This is the default when the variable to predict is not categorical. RMSE—The optimization method will minimize root mean square error to find the optimal set of hyperparameters. This option is only available when the variable to predict is not categorical. ACCURACY—The optimization method will maximize accuracy to find the optimal model. This option is only available when the variable to predict is categorical. This is the default when the variable to predict is categorical. MCC—The optimization method will maximize Matthews correlation coefficient to find the optimal set of hyperparameters. This option is only available when the variable to predict is categorical. F1-SCORE—The optimization method will maximize the F1-Score to find the optimal set of hyperparameters. This option is only available when the variable to predict is categorical.	String
num_search (Optional)	The number of search points within the search space specified by the model_param_setting parameter that will be tested. This parameter is available when the optimize_algorithm parameter value is RANDOM or RANDOM_ROBUST.	Long
model_param_setting [model_param_setting,...] (Optional)	A list of hyperparameters and their search spaces. Customize the search space of each hyperparameter by providing a lower bound, upper bound, and interval. The lower bound and upper bound specify the range of possible values for the hyperparameter. The following is the range of valid values for each hyperparameter: Number of Trees (number_of_trees)—An integer value greater than 1. Maximum Tree Depth (maximum_depth)—An integer value greater than or equal to 0. Minimum Leaf Size (minimum_leaf_size)—An integer value greater than 1. Data Available per Tree (%) (sample_size)—An integer value greater than 0 and less than or equal to 100. Number of Randomly Sampled Variables (random_variables)—An integer value less than or equal to the number of explanatory variables. This includes the explanatory variables from fields, distance features, and rasters. Learning Rate (Eta) (eta)—A double value greater than 0 and less than or equal to 1. L2 Regularization (Lambda) (reg_lambda)—A double value greater than or equal to 0. Minimum Loss Reduction for Splits (Gamma) (gamma)—A double value greater than or equal to 0. Maximum Number of Bins for Searching Splits (max_bins)—An integer value greater than 1 or the value 0. A value of 0 means the model will create a candidate split at every data point.	Value Table
output_param_tuning_table (Optional)	A table that contains the parameter settings and objective values for each optimization trial. The output includes a chart of all the trials and their objective values. This option is available when optimize is TRUE.	Table
include_probabilities (Optional)	For categorical variables to predict, specifies whether the probability of every category of the categorical variable or only the probability of the record's category will be predicted. For example, if a categorical variable has categories A, B, and C, and the first record has category B, use this parameter to specify whether the probability for categories A, B, and C will be predicted or only the probability of category B will be predicted. ALL_PROBABILITIES—Probabilities for all categories of the categorical variable will be predicted and included in the output. HIGHEST_PROBABILITY_ONLY—Only the probability of the category of the record will be predicted and included in the output. This is the default.	Boolean

Derived Output

Name	Explanation	Data Type
output_uncertainty_raster_layers	When calculate_uncertainty is set to TRUE, the tool will calculate a 90 percent prediction interval around each predicted value of the variable_predict parameter.	Raster Layer

Code sample

Forest example 1 (Python window)

The following Python script demonstrates how to use the Forest function.

import arcpy
arcpy.env.workspace = r"c:\data"

# Forest-based model using only the training method and all data
# comes from a single polygon feature class. The tool excludes 10% of the 
# input features from training and uses these values to validate the model.

prediction_type = "TRAIN"
in_features = r"Boston_Vandalism.shp"
variable_predict = "VandCnt"
explanatory_variables = [["Educat", "false"], ["MedAge", "false"], 
    ["HHInc", "false"], ["Pop", "false"]]
output_trained_features = "TrainingFeatures.shp"
number_of_trees = 100
sample_size = 100
percentage_for_training = 10

arcpy.stats.Forest(prediction_type, in_features, variable_predict, None,
    explanatory_variables, None, None, None, None, None, None, None, None,
    output_trained_features, None, True, number_of_trees, None, None, sample_size, 
    None, percentage_for_training)

Forest example 2 (stand-alone script)

The following Python script demonstrates how to use the Forest function to predict to features.

# Import system modules
import arcpy

# Set property to overwrite existing outputs
arcpy.env.overwriteOutput = True

# Set the work space to a gdb
arcpy.env.workspace = r"C:\Data\BostonCrimeDB.gdb"

# Forest-based model taking advantage of both distance features and 
# explanatory rasters. The training and prediction data has been manually
# split so the percentage to exclude parameter was set to 0. A variable importance
# table is created to help assess results and advanced options have been used
# to fine-tune the model.

prediction_type = "PREDICT_FEATURES"
in_features = r"Boston_Vandalism_Training"
variable_predict = "Vandalism_Count"
treat_variable_as_categorical = None
explanatory_variables = [["EduClass", "true"], ["MedianAge", "false"],
    ["HouseholdIncome", "false"], ["TotalPopulation", "false"]]
distance_features = r"Boston_Highways"
explanatory_rasters = r"LandUse true"
features_to_predict = r"Boston_Vandalism_Prediction"
output_features = r"Prediction_Output"
output_raster = None
explanatory_variable_matching = [["EduClass", "EduClass"], ["MedianAge", "MedianAge"], 
    ["HouseholdIncome", "HouseholdIncome"], ["TotalPopulation", "TotalPopulation"]]
explanatory_distance_matching = [["Boston_Highways", "Boston_Highways"]]
explanatory_rasters_matching = [["LandUse", "LandUse"]]
output_trained_features = r"Training_Output"
output_importance_table = r"Variable_Importance"
use_raster_values = True
number_of_trees = 100
minimum_leaf_size = 2
maximum_level = 5
sample_size = 100
random_sample = 3
percentage_for_training = 0

arcpy.stats.Forest(prediction_type, in_features, variable_predict,
    treat_variable_as_categorical, explanatory_variables, distance_features,
    explanatory_rasters, features_to_predict, output_features, output_raster,
    explanatory_variable_matching, explanatory_distance_matching, 
    explanatory_rasters_matching, output_trained_features, output_importance_table,
    use_raster_values, number_of_trees, minimum_leaf_size, maximum_level,
    sample_size, random_sample, percentage_for_training)

Forest example 3 (stand-alone script)

The following Python script demonstrates how to use the Forest function to create a prediction surface.

# Import system modules
import arcpy

# Set property to overwrite existing outputs
arcpy.env.overwriteOutput = True

# Set the work space to a gdb
arcpy.env.workspace = r"C:\Data\Landsat.gdb"

# Using a forest-based model to classify a Landsat image. The TrainingPolygons feature 
# class was created manually and is used to train the model to 
# classify the remainder of the Landsat image.

prediction_type = "PREDICT_RASTER"
in_features = r"TrainingPolygons"
variable_predict = "LandClassName"
treat_variable_as_categorical = "CATEGORICAL" 
explanatory_variables = None
distance_features = None
explanatory_rasters = [["Band1", "false"], ["Band2", "false"], ["Band3", "false"]]
features_to_predict = None
output_features = None
output_raster = r"PredictionSurface"
explanatory_variable_matching = None
explanatory_distance_matching = None
explanatory_rasters_matching = [["Band1", "Band1"], ["Band2", "Band2"], ["Band3", "Band3"]]
output_trained_features = None
output_importance_table = None
use_raster_values = True
number_of_trees = 100
minimum_leaf_size = None
maximum_level = None
sample_size = 100
random_sample = None
percentage_for_training = 10

arcpy.stats.Forest(prediction_type, in_features, variable_predict,
    treat_variable_as_categorical, explanatory_variables, distance_features,
    explanatory_rasters, features_to_predict, output_features, output_raster,
    explanatory_variable_matching, explanatory_distance_matching, 
    explanatory_rasters_matching, output_trained_features, output_importance_table,
    use_raster_values, number_of_trees, minimum_leaf_size, maximum_level,
    sample_size, random_sample, percentage_for_training)

Environments

Cell Size, Output Coordinate System, Random number generator, Mask, Parallel Processing Factor

Special cases

Random number generator

The Random Generator Type used is always Mersenne Twister.

Parallel Processing Factor

Parallel processing is only used when predictions are being made.

Licensing information

• Basic: Limited
• Standard: Limited
• Advanced: Limited